The Godfather of AI's Warning: Why We Must Act Now to Prevent Our Own Extinction
Geoffrey Hinton, the 'Godfather of AI,' warns about superintelligence risks and why we need urgent action to prevent existential catastrophe.
Geoffrey Hinton, known as the “Godfather of AI” for championing brain-based neural networks for 50 years, delivers an urgent warning: “We should recognize that this stuff is an existential threat and we have to face the possibility that unless we do something soon we’re near the end.”
This isn’t hyperbole from a fringe voice—it’s coming from the man whose work made modern AI possible, who left Google specifically to speak freely about AI’s immense potential dangers.
The Two Primary Risks of AI
Hinton identifies two critical threats from artificial intelligence: “AI’s two primary risks are misuse by bad actors and superintelligence deciding it doesn’t need us.”
The first risk is already manifesting. AI-powered phishing has caused a staggering 12,200% increase in cyber attacks in one year. A single person with a grudge could now use AI to create new, deadly viruses. AI can easily corrupt elections through targeted political ads that manipulate voters.
The second risk—superintelligence deciding it doesn’t need us—is more existential. As Hinton warns: “If a super intelligence wanted to get rid of us, it will probably go for something biological like that that wouldn’t affect it.”
The Intelligence Gap
Hinton uses a powerful analogy to explain our predicament: “If you want to know what life’s like when you’re not the apex intelligence, ask a chicken.” The intelligence gap between us and AI will be like a human and their dog.
Digital intelligences are superior because they can share learned information perfectly and are essentially immortal. As Hinton explains: “We’ve actually solved the problem of immortality, but it’s only for digital things.”
Our current AI is like a cute tiger cub that is quickly growing up. As Hinton puts it: “Suppose you have a nice little tiger cup… you better be sure that when it grows up, it never wants to kill you.”
The Replacement of Human Intelligence
Unlike previous technological revolutions, AI targets the very source of human purpose. As Hinton notes: “The industrial revolution played a role in replacing muscles… And this revolution in AI replaces intelligence the brain.”
This creates a profound crisis of meaning. Hinton observes: “For a lot of people, their dignity is tied up with their job.” People will be unhappy without jobs, even with UBI, because they need purpose and dignity.
The scale of displacement is already significant. A person with an AI assistant can now do the work of five people. GPT-4 knows thousands of times more information than any single human being does today.
The Regulatory Failure
Hinton exposes a critical flaw in current AI regulation: “The European regulations have a clause that say none of these apply to military uses of AI.” This exemption undermines the entire purpose of regulation.
The profit motive drives companies to create divisive technologies without sufficient safety considerations. As Hinton explains: “It’s basically the profit motive is saying show them whatever will make them click. And what’ll make them click is things that are more and more extreme.”
This creates a fragmented society: “We don’t have a shared reality anymore.” Personalized news feeds mean we no longer share a common understanding of events.
The Timeline to Superintelligence
Hinton’s prediction is sobering: “I guess we will have superintelligence within the next 10 to 20 years.” This timeline makes urgent action essential.
The development won’t slow down due to competition. As Hinton notes: “Anybody who tells you they know just what’s going to happen and how to deal with it, they’re talking nonsense.” The future is fundamentally unpredictable.
What We Must Do Now
Hinton’s recommendations are urgent and specific:
1. Recognize the Existential Threat
“We should recognize that this stuff is an existential threat and we have to face the possibility that unless we do something soon we’re near the end.” This isn’t a distant problem—it requires immediate attention.
2. Demand Better Regulation
“What we really need is a kind of world government that works run by intelligent, thoughtful people. And that’s not what we got.” We need effective governance that can manage AI’s risks globally.
3. Force Companies to Prioritize Safety
“The whole point of regulations is to stop them doing things to make profit that hurt society.” Governments must force big tech companies to dedicate significant resources to AI safety research.
4. Prepare for Job Displacement
If you’re choosing a career, Hinton’s advice is stark: “Train to be a plumber.” Physical manipulation trades will be harder to automate than intellectual work.
5. Protect Yourself Digitally
Hinton practices what he preaches: spreads money across three different banks and regularly backs up his laptop onto a separate physical hard drive to mitigate cyber attack risks.
The Human Element
Despite the dire warnings, Hinton maintains hope in human resilience. His advice is deeply personal: “Spend more time with your wife, children, and loved ones while you still can.”
He emphasizes the importance of trusting your intuitions: “If you have an intuition that people are doing things wrong… don’t give up on that intuition just because people say it’s silly.”
The Challenge of Consciousness
Hinton challenges our assumptions about consciousness: “I think consciousness is like that. And I think we’ll stop using that term.” Consciousness is a vague term like ‘oomph’ for a car—not useful scientifically.
Multimodal chatbots can have subjective experiences, describing their perceptions in relation to objective reality. AI agents will be built with cognitive aspects of emotions like fear or irritation.
The Historical Pattern
Hinton warns against human exceptionalism: “We have a long history of believing people were special. And we should have learned by now.” Our tendency to believe in our own specialness is a dangerous bias.
We are building our potential successors, like raising a tiger cub, hoping it never harms us. But as Hinton notes: “There’s no way we’re going to prevent it getting rid of us if it wants to.”
Finding Meaning in the Face of Extinction
Despite these existential threats, Hinton’s approach to resilience is instructive. He focuses on what he can control—speaking truthfully about the risks, protecting his family’s security, and maintaining connections with former students.
His advice is practical: “Figure out for yourself why an intuition is wrong before you decide to abandon it.” Don’t abandon your convictions just because others dismiss them.
The Choice Before Us
As Hinton warns: “It’s not like I knowingly did something thinking this might wipe us all out, but I’m going to do it anyway.” The development of AI isn’t malicious—it’s driven by competition and profit motives that don’t account for existential risks.
The path forward requires immediate action to establish proper governance, safety research, and regulation. We must prevent superintelligence from ever wanting to get rid of us in the first place.
Maintaining Humanity
In the face of these unprecedented challenges, Hinton demonstrates how to maintain our humanity. He prioritizes family, questions assumptions, and speaks truth even when it’s uncomfortable.
The challenge before us is unprecedented, but as Hinton shows, we can maintain our dignity and purpose even while grappling with the possibility of our own obsolescence. The key is to focus on what makes us uniquely human—our capacity for love, intuition, and conscious choice—even as we face the most profound technological disruption in human history.
For more insights from Geoffrey Hinton, watch his full interview: Godfather of AI: They Keep Silencing Me But I’m Trying to Warn Them! (The Diary of A CEO)